Preference #38: strategies, forecasts, and odds of winning the Brasileirão

After 45 minutes of play in the second half, Palmeiras scored six goals. Three of those goals gave them the victory, and the other three did not alter the final score of the game but did contribute to the balance that currently provides them an advantage in the event of a draw in points and victories. While some teams achieved more, no team endured less. Palmeiras lost two points since they only managed to take one, from Bahia. Flamengo scored six goals and gave up two, while Atlético-MG scored three in stoppage time and gave up three.

+ Palmeiras’ chances of winning the title are 99.9%. See the probability of each team for title, Libertadores and relegation

Only in second-half stoppage time, Palmeiras built a positive balance of five goals more than Atlético-MG. In total, Palmeiras has eight more goals, after 37 rounds. Every detail plays a part in champion projects. Flamengo has half the balance of Palmeiras (15 against 31).

+ Return classification: Atlético-MG increases 25% in performance and takes symbolic title

After the historic first round, Botafogo is competing for a place in the G-4 for the group stage and to do so they need to beat Internacional away from home and hope that Atlético-MG, Flamengo or Grêmio don’t win. Santos and Vasco need to win so that they do not depend on Bahia’s result to remain in Series A.

+ Foreign technicians’ jobs last 50 days longer than those of Brazilians in the national elite

We analyzed 102,827 shots registered by the Espião Estatístico team in 4,169 Brasileirão games since the 2013

edition, which serve as a parameter to measure the current productivity of teams based on goal expectation (xG), an internationally consolidated metric (see the methodology at the end of the text).



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